While most of the news related to the US economy is about the impact of the President’s tariffs program, the discussions often include topics such as the current job market, interest rates, inflation and unemployment. While interest rates, inflation and unemployment appear to be holding fairly steady, some believe that lowering the interest rates will only stimulate the economy further and make hiring better, resulting in lowering the unemployment rate to well below the August 2025 rate of 4.3 percent.
Many feel that this can be done while still keeping inflation at an acceptable level. We will just have to wait and see what changes are eventually made and the impact of those changes. But bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US as the result of increasing international tariffs will ultimately not bring as many jobs as some people think.
Associated with the unemployment rate discussion is the impact of AI and automation in this country. Many are concerned that the ever-expanding use of AI and automation as has already been done in various industries will actually reduce and continue to reduce the number of available jobs in the US thus increasing unemployment. And, without a doubt, this absolutely will be the case in some sectors of the job market. Manufacturing, assembly line work and similar jobs are being vastly eliminated by the use of robotics. The days of seeing assembly lines with dozens of workers is more atypical that 20 or even 10 years ago. The future job market appears to be geared more towards jobs requiring a background in software development, data and technology fields, the medical fields and the construction industry.
So, the question is this: Do current workers and people ready to enter the job market have a legitimate concern about employment? American youth now spend way more time in an air-conditioned environment than the youth of past generations and are much less likely to consider a career in the construction industry. Many large and small construction companies around the country cannot find enough US born workers and the shortages in this field would be even greater if not for the foreign-born workers who are currently in the US willing to take on such jobs. A large percentage of careers in the medical fields, data, software and similar technical fields require an education beyond high school. Currently the enrollment rate for 2-year or 4-year colleges is in the 40 percent range of all 18-24 year olds. This 40 percent represents the students who most likely will have the opportunity to work in these professions with some of the highest demands for employment. So, as the Country and World continue to become more and more reliant upon technology and AI, the opportunities for the other 60 percent of the US population who are not getting an education past the high school level will continue to find themselves limited in job opportunities and employment. This should not be interpreted that they will have to struggle to make a living. For those that find a field or career in whatever they enjoy and work really hard at it, they will be able to make a decent or even a very good living.
However, the caveat of working very hard is not a high priority for some and the concern is what will these people be able to do to have a reasonable income? I assume there will only become more and more demand for government assistance with personal expenses (i.e. rent, loans, subsistence, etc.) As the number of persons without the level of income that they desire increases, it is going to become a more and more difficult situation for our leaders to address especially when we are past the tipping point where the majority of voters cannot find fulfilling and rewarding careers without the skills typically taught beyond a K-12 education.
