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The narrative has become well-known: if you work in a job that involves a lot of simple, repetitive tasks, then yes you should worry that a robot will replace you sooner rather than later. If, however, you work in a job in high-value services that requires using your brain and making decisions, then you probably will be safe from being replaced. It was true enough, except that the advent of generative artificial intelligence has flipped that narrative on its head. Going forward, those high-value jobs are the ones that are set to be the most transformed and that has implications for not just workers, but for the different regions within Canada.
The idea that there are regional implications from the adoption of AI technologies comes from a new report by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The study looks at the sectors that are most at risk because of generative AI and the way that they are spread out across regions in different countries, concluding that it is the regions that were most untouched by the past decades of tech change that are going to be the most shaken up in the near future.
To understand what is happening, it is important to define the difference between automation and generative AI. Automation is about using technology to perform repetitive tasks. From industrial robots in factories to washing machines that get your clothes clean at the touch of a button, we have been using technology to automate tasks for centuries now. As wondrous as it might be, however, your basic washing machine does the same things over and over without changing anything. AI technology, however, does learn and respond to new information without a human being involved. Generative AI takes it all a step further by being able to create original content from the patterns it observes.
Interestingly, the OECD report finds that regions previously considered to be at a comparatively low risk of automation are the ones that are the most exposed to generative AI. You can see this from the example of the writers’ strike in Hollywood last year. Prior to the use of generative AI, Hollywood was likely considered a region at low risk of automation because basic robots could not write scripts. However, with the advent of generative AI, technology can be used to create content.
It is the opposite of what we have seen for decades where robots and new automation processes have been brought into factories or used in construction and workers worried for their jobs. When it comes to gen AI, however, construction and manufacturing have a below-average exposure to change. Education, human health and social work, however, all have an above average exposure. The automation we are used to has, to a large extent, replaced workers in lower-skilled jobs and has affected men more often than women. This time around, however, the technology changes will affect what we have come to think of as higher skill jobs and will have more of an impact in sectors where women are employed.
Over all, the OECD sees 45 per cent of all occupations as being ‘exposed’ to gen-AI (defined by them as having at least 20 per cent of job tasks that could be done 50 per cent faster if using generative AI) now or in the near future. That varies by occupation, however, with for example, 87 per cent of programming jobs exposed, as compared to 47 per cent of creative jobs and 43 per cent of those in health care. Looking at health care in more detail, the OECD sees difference within the sector as well, with administrators who deal with records as the most exposed and the group that has the least amount of exposure as being those whose jobs are not limited to diagnosis and who do actual physical procedures such as dental hygienists and paramedics.
Within Canada, the OECD sees regions with low risks of automation as being the ones most highly exposed to generative AI and vice-versa. Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia are the provinces they see as most vulnerable to generative AI (but not to automation), while Newfoundland and Saskatchewan have the lowest risk. Although the data is not broken down further by province, it is likely that the split has much to do with the fact that provinces such as Ontario and B.C. have a large swathe of population living in urban areas and who work in industries that are likely to see widespread adoption of gen AI.
As unsettling as it might be to think of technology being able to perform jobs now done by humans, it is important to note that up until now automation has led to job growth rather than losses. For the most part, automation boosts productivity which is a positive thing and which eventually leads to expansion and hiring. With an aging population, it also becomes more important to look for ways to boost productivity and to offset labour shortages. Given Canada’s chronic issues with productivity, it makes sense to think that adopting new technologies can potentially have positive benefits.
What this means for workers is not immediately clear, but at the very least anyone working in a job that can be affected by AI should be prepared to embrace the technology and figure out how it can make them more effective. That might be a bit difficult to do since the looming threat is always that more effective technology might mean a lower need for workers. Organizations and governments will also need to give the coming changes some thought, particularly as they threaten to change what have become familiar patterns of economic growth. Ultimately the productivity gains may benefit all areas and sectors, but the transition to get there might be a dramatic and unfamiliar one.
