Artificial intelligence and prediction markets have opened new frontiers in Texas politics, but one expert said the growth of platforms like ChatGPT and Polymarket is far outpacing legislative efforts to limit their impact on elections.
It’s a trend that’s emerging in Texas’ Republican primary for U.S. Senate, as Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton trade AI-generated attack ads, including a recent video published by Paxton that featured a smiling Cornyn enjoying “spring break” while President Donald Trump’s agenda stalled in the Senate.
The race has also seen significant interest from traders on prediction markets, which allow users to bet on the outcome of everything from elections to wars and sports. More than $15 million in trades have been placed on the outcome of the primary through Polymarket, according to the website’s market page for the Senate primary.
Texas was the first state to pass a law limiting the use of deepfakes in political advertising, but experts said the technology has evolved well beyond the scope of the 2019 bill, which applies only to state races. Further state and federal efforts to regulate the impact prediction markets and other AI tools can have on elections have largely floundered, leaving the door open for political actors to use the technologies in everything from the 2024 presidential primary to a 2025 election for Dallas City Council.
Andrew Cates, a campaign ethics attorney who’s written nine editions of a legal practice guide on the subject, said, without guardrails, both technologies can have dire consequences for elections in Texas.
“We’re cooked for sure,” Cates said. “Nobody knows anything about AI (at the Capitol). Nobody knows anything about computers. And that’s beyond the fact that the absolute truism is that government will never keep up with technology. It moves way too fast.”
MORE ON THE TECH: Are those food photos real? AI images are popping up in Houston restaurant posts
The information ecosystem of e lections – already burdened by disinformation on social media – could collapse as candidates adopt increasingly advanced tools that make it near-impossible for voters to distinguish fact from fiction, Cates said.
Voices can be spoofed, videos and images fabricated. Trend lines on prediction markets can be driven up or down by deep-pocketed candidates and donors, potentially impacting voters’ perceptions of candidates’ popular support, Cates said.
“You can just have somebody be a straw man and dump money into a Polymarket race and influence everybody else,” Cates said. “Anyone can drop a bunch of money and then go: ‘Oh, s-, somebody just put $1 million on Donald Trump.’ And then all of a sudden, it swings it up to a 70-30 race.”
Cates said Texas law currently does not prevent candidates from using their campaign donations to bet on themselves using prediction markets like Polymarket, which did not respond to questions about the company’s policies regarding elections.
State, federal regulatory efforts fall flat
Rep. Dade Phelan, left, talks to Rep. Venton Jones, right, in the Texas House of Representatives chamber at the Texas Capitol on Thursday, May 15, 2025. (Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman)
Two Texas lawmakers who have advocated for expanded AI regulations both are not running for reelection, sending the state “back to the Stone Age” on the issue, Cates said.
HOUSTONIANS ON AI: ‘We’re kind of being sold a lie’
“Texas was ahead of its time in 2019 and now it’s immediately well behind the time in 2026,” Cates said. “We’ve got a deepfake law that applies only within 30 days of an election, and you have to prove intent to deceive or harm a candidate, which is impossible.”
Cates worked with Rep. Dade Phelan to introduce a bill building on the 2019 deepfake law, hoping to force candidates and PACs to disclose if AI was used in political advertising. The bill passed the House but died in the Senate.
Phelan, who previously served as speaker of the Texas House, announced in August he would not seek reelection. The Beaumont Republican’s decision came amid rising ire from GOP voters who have criticized him for his role overseeing Paxton’s 2023 impeachment proceedings and attacks on his record as a conservative lawmaker.
Phelan said political social media influencers were among the most vocal critics of the bill, saying it was an attack on political speech and their ability to “meme” freely.
But Phelan said the bill aimed only to regulate memes that were generated by people being paid to do so. Regulating political speech funded through campaign contributions is a common practice, he said, pointing to disclosure requirements for political advertisements.
“There was a segment of paid online influencers who probably would have had to disclose their AI use under this bill, and they’re the ones who try to say it had to do with memes,” Phelan said.
ROBO-LIGHTS: Houston City Council considers expanding use of AI traffic signals to ease congestion, improve safety
The Federal Communications Commission in 2024 announced its intent to fine a political consultant $6 million for using AI to mimic President Joe Biden’s voice as part of a robocall campaign. But the Federal Election Commission claimed jurisdiction over the incident since it was directly tied to the presidential primaries, and that agency has lacked a quorum to take action since Trump took office.
Phelan said he’s also concerned about prediction markets and the impact they may have on Texas elections. But without action from the federal government, he said he doesn’t expect to see legislation addressing AI or prediction markets out of Austin.
“It’s going to take, unfortunately, a very bad incident where someone loses an election over a fake ad before we see anything real happen here,” Phelan said. “It’s sad, because the voters at the end of the day are the ones that are going to lose out the most.”
Local impact
Voters in Harris County have yet to see large scale adoption of deceptive AI strategies, and local elections appear to have escaped the speculative gaze of traders on prediction markets.
It’s a different story elsewhere in Texas. Jeff Kitner, a candidate for Dallas City Council, made headlines in 2025 after one of his opponents’ supporters published a disparaging AI video featuring Kitner to social media. Kitner, who ultimately lost in a runoff, said he never watched the video and was unsure if it had any impact on the outcome of the election.
But the added noise from AI-generated content, whether satirical or overtly deceptive, has made it more difficult for candidates’ messages to pierce through to voters, Kitner said.
HUNGRY AI: Get personalized answers based on our critic’s restaurant recommendations
“I was disappointed to see that come up during my election, and would love to see something happen in the Legislature to prevent those kinds of things from happening,” Kitner said. “I don’t know what the future holds for me, but I do think other people will look at the kinds of things that are happening with AI, and they just won’t want to bother with running for office because of all the headaches associated with it.”
Nancy Sims, a political science lecturer at the University of Houston, said candidates seeking office cannot afford to disregard emerging technologies. During the adoption of the Internet, she said, many candidates were slow to jump on what they viewed as a “passing fad,” and that hurt them in the long run.
“I don’t believe AI is a passing fad,” Sims said. “It’s here to stay. And if you’re a candidate, you better be on it. You better have your own path on how you want to use it, and you better be prepared for what your opponent may do with it.”
This article originally published at Texas ethics expert says prediction markets and AI are threatening elections: ‘We’re cooked’.
